FREE NFL Over-Under Sunday 10-4-15
UNDER 45 San Diego/Cleveland (NFL)
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Recommendation: Take San Francisco (#270)
Sometimes, the appropriate betting move in the NFL is to hold your nose and bet on the team that nobody wants; a squad offering legitimate pointspread value. That’s the case with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
This is truly a dismal spot for the road favorite. Green Bay faced divisional rival Chicago in their opener, beating up the Bears. Then they faced a HUGE revenge game on Sunday Night against the Seahawks; a ‘Big Ticket’ winner for myself and my clients with another ATS cover. And then the Packers enjoyed a third straight win and cover in a third straight big game, knocking off KC on Monday Night Football. At 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, the Packers now fly across the country to take on a 49ers team that just got annihilated in back-2-back road tilts, losing by a combined score of 90-25. Think Green Bay brings their ‘A’ game here? I don’t!
The 49ers have played one previous home game this season. They covered the spread by three touchdowns in that contest, a dominating win over a Vikings squad that hasn’t lost since. The Niners have been trailing by margin early in each of their last two losses, unable to get Carlos Hyde going as the focal point of the offense. But Green Bay can’t stop the run, ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing a full 5.0 yards per carry. That’s a bad omen for any team facing a desperate foe in this pointspread range! Look for San Fran to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field for extended stretches, grinding out yards and first downs on the ground.
Its surely worth noting that the 49ers said all the right things after last week’s debacle at Arizona. Colin Kaepernick’s quote following his four interception performance took full responsibility: “I nullified all the efforts of every player on the field today." Kaepernick has a stellar track record against Dom Capers defense, averaging more than 100 yards rushing in the last three meetings; games in which San Fran averaged 33 points per game. If we see anything close to that level of offensive production on Sunday and we can expect a competitive game from start to finish. Take the 49ers.
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Free Pick on Packers/49ers OVER
I'm going to take the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers to go over the total of 48.5 points. The Packers lowest scoring game so far this season is 44 points in Week 2's Sunday Night Football showdown against the Seahawks. That's the only contest Green Bay hasn't eclipsed 30 points, as they head into Week 4 averaging 32.0 ppg. Now they face a 49ers defense that has allowed 90 points the last two weeks.
While San Francisco's defense did hold the Vikings to just 3-points at home in Week 1, Minnesota's offense is built around the running game with Adrian Peterson. The 49ers secondary wasn't tested in that game, but clearly should have been. San Francisco allowed Ben Roethlisberger to complete 21 of 27 for 369 yards and 3 scores in Week 2 and followed that up by allowing Carson Palmer to complete 20 of 32 for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now they face arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a 5 TD performance against the Chiefs.
Some will point to Rodgers not being as good on the road as he is at home, but that's irrelevant with this matchup. What a lot of people don't realize is how much this game means to Rodgers and the Packers, as they have lost 4 straight to the 49ers with two of those coming in the playoffs. Rodgers doesn't forget about these kind of things and will be extremely motivated to not just beat San Francisco but embarrass them.
Now I could see some concern with backing the OVER at close to 50 points with a 49ers offense that hasn't looked good the last two weeks, but I'm expecting San Francisco to bounce back at home after playing the last two on the road. It will also help that Green Bay is playing on a short week of rest and has to travel quite a ways out to the west coast. I don't see it having a negative impact on Rodgers, but I do think it will take away from their defense.
The OVER is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 games in the month of October, 10-4 in their last 14 against the NFC and 14-6 in their last 20 road games. We also find a great system in play. The OVER is 36-11 since 1983 in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where the road team is coming off a home win by 10 or more points and is undefeated on the season. That's a 70% long-term system. Take the OVER!
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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: San Francisco 49ers +9
This line has clearly been inflated based on the results last week. The Packers throttled the Kansas City Chiefs 38-28 at home in a game that really wasn’t even that close as the Chiefs scored a couple touchdowns late to make it look respectable. The 49ers are coming off a 47-7 loss to the Cardinals. These two results have the betting public all over the Packers, forcing the oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be.
I’m not willing to sit here and say that the 49ers are a great team by any means. But they threw two pick 6’s early against the Cardinals last week that put them behind the eight ball and forced to get out of their comfort zone. They were only outgained by 44 total yards by the Steelers as well. Both of those games were on the road, but now they return home where they played their best game in the opener.
Indeed, the 49ers crushed the Vikings 20-3 at home in Week 1. Not only did they win that game, they dominated it by outgaining the Vikings by 147 total yards. That win looks even more impressive now with the way the Vikings have handled both the Lions and Chargers at home in back-to-back wins since. I look for the 49ers to get back to what they did in that game, which is control the ball with their rushing attack and not make Colin Kaepernick have to make so many plays through the air.
The Packers have not been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home. In fact, they were just 4-5 on the road last season when you count the playoffs compared to 9-0 at home. They had a -11 point differential on the road last season. In their first road game of 2015, they were fortunate to escape with a 31-23 win at Chicago. They were actually outgained by 80 yards by the Bears as this was only a 1-point game entering the fourth quarter.
The 49ers have had the secret formula to beat the Packers in recent years. They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings. They won 30-22 on the road in 2012, 45-31 at home in 2013, 34-28 at home in 2013, and 23-20 on the road in 2014. They have outgained the Packers in each of the last three meetings by an average of 145.3 yards per game. Kaepernick has run wild on this Green Bay defense, which always struggles with running quarterbacks. Plus, the Packers have been held to an average of 335.5 yards per game in the four meetings.
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after trailing their last two games by 10-plus points at the half. They are coming back to win by an average of 14.4 points per game in this spot. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) – poor team – outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after scoring 9 points or less last game are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
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Play Against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like SAN DIEGO, after a loss by 10 or more points, against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. How this system has worked it has just been too many points for the home team to be handing out when both teams are off bad losses. This free play system is 20-54 the last 32 years when looking at teams like the Chargers!
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