Jack's Free Pick Monday: Washington Nationals -137
The Washington Nationals are showing solid value as road favorites over the Philadelphia Phillies today. I like their chances of winning Game 1 of this series thanks to the advantage they have on the mound.
Tanner Roark is making the most of his move up to the rotation this year. He's 3-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Roark faced the Phillies on April 28, pitching 7 shutout innings in a 3-0 loss.
Jeremy Hellickson is 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 10 starts. He's clearly overvalued right now after that start because it's the first time he's had success in the majors in a long time. Hellickson is 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in four career starts against Washington.
Philadelphia is 4-16 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 5-21 in their last 26 Monday games. The Phillies are 9-23 in their last 32 during game 1 of a series. Bet the Nationals Monday.
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Play - Seattle w/Karns.
Edges: Mariners: Nate Karns 2-0 day starts this season; and 3.53 ERA with 1.29 WHIP this campaign. Padres: Andrew Cashner 5.93 ERA with 1.76 ERA overall this season. With Cashner in wobbly KW form with 12 BB’s and 10 K’s in his last three efforts, look for Karns to improve to 8-4 in his career team starts during May here today. We recommend a 1* play on Seattle. Thank you and good luck as always.
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I'm backing the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday. I think the casual fan may be surprised, but thanks to a current 5-1 run, the Brewers are just 2 1/2 games behind the Cardinals for third place in the NL Central standings. Today, they'll have the advantage of having the starting pitcher in better current form, while also facing potentially, a weary Cardinal pen. First of all, Cardinal righty Carlos Martinez has struggled thanks to physical problems and off-field issues. In fact, he was removed from one game with what was reported to be fatigue issues. The bottom line is that the Redbirds are on a 0-5 slide when he toes the rubber and he owns a hefty 6.84 ERA & 1.60 WHIP. Martinez has not lasted six full innings in any of his last four starts. The Brewers will counter with Junior Guerra, who has settled into the rotation in his last three starts. The right-hander has allowed just three earned runs, 20 base runners, and one home run in his last three starts, spanning 18 innings of work. He's punched-out 21 batters along the way and has a .209 BAA. His team has won all five of his starts. I expect some offensive support for Guerra with his team ranked in the top-9 at home in batting average, OBP, and OPS. Ryan Braun may sit on Monday, but with the way Jonathan Lucroy, Aaron Hill, and Jonathan Villar are hitting, I doubt they'll miss him. The bullpens are rather close in ERA, but the Cardinals' pen has been used quite a bit of late. I'm backing the Brewers on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Free Pick on White Sox -
I'm going to continue to fade the Mets with Matt Harvey on the mound until he shows he's got things figured out. New York is just 3-7 in his 10 starts this season and Harvey comes in with a 10.79 ERA and 2.324 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
On the other side of the mound, we have one of the AL's top starters in Jose Quintana, who has a 2.22 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in 10 starts. Quintana has thrived on the road, posting a 2.05 ERA in 5 road starts. He'll have a big advantage here, as this will be the first time he's faced the Mets in his career. New York is also scoring just 2.6 runs/game against left-handed starters this season.
White Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 interleague road games against a right-handed starter, while the Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 1-5 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Chicago!
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