The College football Complimentary power system play is on LSU at 6:00 eastern on ESPN. Auburn is 0-6 off a loss and spread loss vs a team off a win like LSU. Home teams playing in a 3rd straight home game of 1 exact loss as a favorite of 15 or less have cashed over 80% of the time long term when going against these home teams. LSU is loaded with 18 starters back from a 9 win team. Auburn has failed to cover 7 of the last 10 September games and appears headed for another tough year. Play on LSU tonight. On Saturday we have a tremendous college football card up and lead by the BIG 12 Highest rated Game of the year, A late PAC 12 Double 100% system and Several high end Plays. We continue to rank #1 overall in all sports on several high end leader boards. Jump on now and put the most powerful data in the industry on your side. For the free College Play. Take LSU Tonight. RV
Each team is 1-2, but that is where the similarities end.
Idaho didn't look good in a lackluster 20-17 victory against Montana State and was blown out 59-14 at Washington and 56-6 at Washington State. The Vandals' offense is down from a year ago while UNLV's defense has improved with more speed and athletic talent.
Things are so bad for the Vandals that they are voluntarily dropping down to FCS status in two years. They don't have the talent and resources to compete.
The arrow is headed the other way for UNLV under second-year head man Tony Sanchez, the Rebels' best coach during the past 30 years.
The Rebels are in a kill spot after consecutive road games against UCLA and Central Michigan. The demoralized Vandals are on the road a third consecutive week.
Sanchez is in the process of building up the Rebels' program and lopsided victories help. UNLV can't - and won't - be screwing around here knowing they have to earn a bowl bid and style points help.
The Rebels have a very good running back, Lexington Thomas, and a strong-armed quarterback Johnny Stanton, who should get his confidence back up facing an Idaho secondary allowing more than 65 percent completions.
The Vandals give up 42.1 points per game, ranking 122nd in the nation in scoring defense and 117th in total defense. Only three of the 128 football bowl subdivision teams give up more rushing yards per game than Idaho. So Thomas - who averages 6.2 yards per carry - should run wild which in turn will make things easier for Stanton to cut loose and improve his accuracy.
(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 20-8-1 for 71 percent on his last 29 premium college football plays through Thursday and has five more plays going Saturday, including his Game of the Month and Total of the Week.)
Kentucky picked up its first win of the season last week against New Mexico St. and while the start was not very good, the finish was. The game was tied at 35 at halftime but Kentucky used a 27-7 run in the second half to pull away. The defense was a disappointment although the Aggies offense is not all that bad but it was the Wildcats offense that put on a show, totaling 692 yards of offense. The challenge will be more difficult this week against a much better South Carolina defense but on the other side, the Kentucky defense will not be challenged much here. The Gamecocks have scored just 47 points in their three games where they are 2-1 overall. They got a very fortunate win against Vanderbilt on opening night thanks to a 55-yard field goal with just 35 second left then got trounced by Mississippi St. the following week, getting outgained by 242 yards. Last week, they defeated East Carolina at home but had no business in doing so. South Carolina was outgained by 207 yards but was fortunate that the Pirates committed four turnovers, three of which took place inside the South Carolina 10-yard line. Because of that misleading final, we are getting a smaller than anticipated line. The Gamecocks used to dominate this series but Kentucky has won the last two meetings showing just how far the South Carolina program has fallen. The Wildcats will be without starting quarterback Drew Barker because of a back injury but that is not necessarily a bad thing as Stephen Johnson came in and had a strong showing, completing 77 percent of his passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing 10 times for 51 yards. Play (382) Kentucky Wildcats
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I'm recommending a play on Northwestern plus the points on Saturday. This has been an exciting and close fought series with four of the last five meetings decided by 2, 3, 1, and 3 points. In fact, the Wildcats have won two of the five times the teams have hooked-up since Nebraska joined the Big-10 conference. Northwestern played their best game of the season last time out, ending in a 24-13 win over Duke. And while the loss to Illinois State as a 12 1/2 point favorite was unexpected, we did feel they'd lose the opener to Western Michigan, as they did. Northwestern is catching Nebraska at the right time. The Huskers are off their biggest home win, outside of conference play, in 15 years. The team and Riley celebrated the victory over Oregon much more than you normally see following a regular season win. But this isn't just about a potential hangover spot, this is also a situation where I have Nebraska's overall talent in the top-15 in college football, but led by a QB too inconsistent to get the most out of his team week-in, week-out. Tommy Armstrong played well against Oregon, but he has not been consistent through the air since his arrival in Lincoln. Nebraska has struggled in the first half of all three games, including their first two against out-manned Fresno State and Wyoming. Struggle for 2+ quarters in this one and things could get rather shaky for the Big Red. I believe we're in for another close Nebraska-Northwestern contest and I'm recommending a play on the Wildcats plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
The Cardinal head into UCLA on Saturday and hold value laying just a field goal here in this one.
Stanford's offense is far better than UCLA's here in this spot.
Christian McCaffrey is obviously the main spark to this offense, but his ability to pick up big chunks of yardage at a time has actually opened up the pass game more.
QB Ryan Burns has completed almost 70% of his passes this season. Look for him to be a key here as the Bruins will certainly stack the box daring him to throw. With how good Burns has been, that bodes well here for the Cardinal.
Some trends to note. Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Look for Stanford to continue their dominance against UCLA. They've won 8 straight in this series and 9 looks to be a very realistic option here.
Back Stanford ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Louisville opened as a 24-point road favorite and was quickly bet up to 25.5 early in the week. This line has continued to climb and has now reach the key number of at least 28 or more. The public has pushed this line higher, especially after last week's impressive 63-20 blowout win versus FloridaState. However, this is a terrible scheduling situation for Louisville. The Cardinals are coming off two national TV conference wins versus Syracuse and FloridaState, and have another huge game on deck next week at Clemson. It is very possible Louisville will overlook a non-conference opponent like Marshall this week.
The Thundering Herd is coming off a bad home loss last week as a 17.5-point favorite versus Akron. Marshall is now a 28.5-point home dog. That is an incredible 46 point line adjustment this week. The Herd suffered from a 4-1 turnover deficit versus Akron, but still gained 560 total yards. Marshall has enough offense to trade points with Louisville as Marshall is averaging 50 points per game this season on 545 total yards per game (6.9 yards per play). It also provides plenty of backdoor cover potential late in this game if needed, especially if Louisville starts looking ahead to next week's huge game versus Clemson.
Play - Minnesota Vikings.
Edges - Vikings: QB Sam Bradford is 16-11 ATS as a road dog in the NFL, including 10-4 ATS the last fourteen games; and 4-1 ATS as road dogs before a Monday Night game. Panthers: 3-7 ATS home favorites off a home game, including 2-6 ATS in non-division games. With the Viking 26-9 ATS in all games under head coach Mike Zimmer, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Baylor -8.5
I believe that Baylor is way undervalued right now because it has opened the season by going 0-3 ATS. However, the Bears have barely favored to cover the spread in all three games.
They beat Northwestern State 55-7 as 50-point favorites (2-point loss), SMU 40-13 as 34.5-point favorites (7.5-point loss) and Rice 38-10 as 33.5-point favorites (5.5-point loss). They easily could have covered against both Northwestern State and Rice had they kept their foot on the gas.
Now the Bears are only laying 8.5-points here against an Oklahoma State team that clearly has its issues this season. And Baylor really hasn’t missed a beat with Jim Grobe as the offense is averaging 44.3 points and 557.3 yards per game, while the defense is only giving up 10.0 points and 249.3 yards per game. The Bears are outscoring opponents by 34.3 points per game and outgaining them by 308 yards per game.
Sure, Oklahoma State got screwed against Central Michigan, but the fact that it was even a game is concerning. The Cowboys really deserved to lose because they were outgained 338 to 418, or by 80 total yards. They went 1-for-11 on 3rd downs, and only gaining 338 yards against Central Michigan is not very good.
The Bears have had the Cowboys’ number in recent years, winning three of the last four meetings. The last two really haven’t even been close. Baylor won 49-28 at home in 2014 while outgaining Oklahoma State 579 to 397 for the game. Then Baylor led by double-digits the entire second half on the road last year and won 45-35. That game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bears outgained the Cowboys 700 to 441, or by 259 total yards.
McLane Stadium has been a very tough place for Big 12 opponents. Indeed, the Bears are 17-3 in their last 20 conference home games. They lost their final two home games last year, but they were battling injuries and missing starting QB Seth Russell in losses to both Oklahoma and Texas.
Russell certainly looks like his old self this season as he has thrown for 761 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. KD Cannon is a beast, catching 24 balls for 352 yards and four scores. Plus, the Bears have three different running backs with at least 200 yards rushing in JaMycal Hasty (237 yards, 2 TD), Terrence Williams (232, 3 TD) and Shock Linwood (213).
Oklahoma State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. Baylor is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 525 or more total yards in its previous game. Plays on a home team (BAYLOR) – after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last two games, with five defensive starters returning are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bears are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games overall. Bet Baylor Saturday.
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What a setup for us here. We get Louisville off an absolute throttling of Florida State dropping 63 on the Seminoles. Now they hit the road extra full of themselves laying a boatload to the Herd.
Now, not saying the Herd is a very good team. And coming off another game, maybe they cover. But the Cardinals have Clemson, on the road up next.
Lamar Jackson has more TDs (18) than 100+ colleges, so it isn't like this team can't score. But I can see them pushing the brakes a bit here with the Tigers on deck.
Your Situational Free Pick Winner is on MARSHALL Saturday night - GL
In my humble opinion there is an obvious lack of cohesion in the Washington Redskins locker room and on the sidelines and most noticeably on the field. Losing your first two home games of the season, does not do alot for a teams confidence. Yes, I know QB Cousins has thrown for a big chunk yards through two games (693) but he has only 1 touchdown and three interceptions to show for it in his one man flying circus. Meanwhile the Gmen are performing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with a 2-0 record. With QB Manning doing just enough , in between some top tier play from the Giants D, the home side looked poised to start their season 3-0. It must noted that NYG allowed the Saints just 3 /3rd down conversions in 13 tries in their last game a 16-13 win.
Redskins are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 3.Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Redskins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New York. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Play on the NY Giants to cover
Free Pick on Auburn +
I think we are seeing some great value here with a desperate Auburn team catching points at home against an overrated LSU team that shouldn't be favored on the road against a SEC West opponent. Auburn is getting zero love right now, as they are just 1-2 after their first 3 games, but let's not overlook who they have lost to. Clemson and Texas A&M are two very good teams, who are outstanding on the defensive side of the ball, especially when it comes to stopping the run.
Now I know LSU has a solid defense, but I think it's a bit overrated given they have played two games against Jacksonville State and Mississippi State. We have already seen LSU go on the road and lose to Wisconsin and the Badgers aren't anything close to as good as Auburn on the offensive side of the ball.
I know Auburn's defense didn't play great last week against Texas A&M, but that's a difficult offense to stop, as they can beat you with both the run and the pass. LSU doesn't offer that same balance. While Etling has provided a spark in the passing game after replacing Harris, he is still limited and will be facing a pissed off and talented Auburn defense. I look for Auburn's defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder after letting Fournette and LSU to rush for 411 yards and 5 touchdowns (only 74 yards passing) in last year's 45-21 loss in Death Valley.
Keep in mind the home team has had a massive edge in this series. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings by at least 14 points, including Auburn's 41-7 win over LSU in the Tigers last visit to Jordan-Hare back in 2014. You can go back even further and see the home team has won 6 of the last 7 all by at least a touchdown.
It's also worth noting that LSU is just 9-23 ATS under Les Miles after playing two straight at home and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 7-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Take Auburn!
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10* graded play on Rice as they take on North Texas State in NCAA action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability Rice will win this game by 11 or more points.
Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. North Texas (NT) is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons; Rice is a solid 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points;
Fundamental Discussion Points The Rice owls come into this Conference USA battle today against the Mean Green of North Texas. Rice has a 0-3 record losing to Western Kentucky, Army and Baylor.Both teams support similar statistical numbers, but Rice numbers defensively are against more potent offenses. Last year Rice got a couple of Turnovers and pulled away from North Texas winning 38-24 on the road. Rice returns 16 starters and 52 letterman from a 5-7 team last year and North Texas returns 14 starters from a 1-11 team. This is an important game for Rice to get the season on tap and they get the perfect opponent today, We look to a similar result as last years game and Rice to Cover the touchdown and a hook. Take Rice at home today and lay the 7 1\2
Take Pittsburgh (#481)
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Yes, the Eagles are 2-0 to open the season. But those two wins came against Bottom 5 competition, with both the Browns and Bears losing at truly dismal seasons. This is a major step up in class for a team playing on a short week, a mediocre (at best) squad who is feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Make no mistake about it. Carson Wentz has looked pretty good, with a QB rating of 94 through his first two NFL starts. He’s yet to throw an interception and he’s only been sacked four times in 75 dropbacks. But Jordan Matthews is the only receiver with 100 yards. Despite the success of the passing game, Philly is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. And they’ve only faced bottom tier defenses thus far, with the Browns at the very bottom of any defensive rankings and the Bears suffering a barrage of in-game injuries that left them without five defensive starters in the second half. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t truly elite, but it’s a good notch or two better than anything Wentz and the Eagles offense has seen before.
Philly has looked good defensively against RG3 (who may never start another NFL game) and Jay Cutler (who, if Chicago wasn’t paying him a fortune, might never start another NFL game). The Steelers offense is another animal entirely. Two time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger ranks in the upper echelon of NFL QB’s. Antonio Brown is the most dangerous receiver in the NFL. Sammie Coates has emerged as a deep threat on every drive. DeAngelo Williams leads the NFL in rushing yards through the first two weeks. The Steelers hung 24 on a top notch defense in lousy weather last week, and there’s no reason to think that Philly’s defense will be able to stop them or that Philly’s offense will be able to trade points. Expect a comfortable win from the road favorite. Take the Steelers.