On Thursday the 100% National league total of the month and a Big Blowout system takes center stage on the diamond tonight. MLB Top play cashes easily on Wednesday. MLB Comp play below.
On Thursday the MLB Comp play is on the Texas Rangers at 8:05 Eastern. This game is a right back rematch from 4 days ago as Hamels and Texas beat Ventura and KC 7-4. Now they switch venues. However the results will likely stay the same as Texas fits a 75% league wide system that pertains to their loss last night. The Royals are 1-14 in the first game of a series vs a lefty when they lost the last three times they faced a lefty . Hamels has a stellar 2.87 Era this year and has won 7 of 9 home team starts. Ventura has dropped 7 of 10 on the road and has a 5.26 road era, while losing his last 3 to Texas. Look for the Rangers to take the opener. On Thursday a Pair of powerful plays are up. The 100% National League Total of the Month and a Big Blowout super system are up. Top play an easy winner on Hump day. Jump on now and cash out with high end data that wont be seen anywhere else. For the MLB Free pick. Play on Texas. RV
Unlike other sports, motivation rarely counts in handicapping baseball. But once in a while it can factor. Couple that with a strong pitching/bullpen edge, a key under-the-radar injury and fair price and the Brewers become an investment today.
Did you say lay a price with the rebuilding Brewers, owners of a 43-56 record?
Yes. Much sets up well for Milwaukee here. The Brewers are home to Arizona, who are even worse at 42-59. The pitching matchup is lefty Robbie Ray against Zach Davies. Ray is the bigger strikeout pitcher and has more name recognition. Davies is the better pitcher. More on that shortly.
Milwaukee owns a winning home mark and is 18-14 versus southpaws. Arizona is 2-9 in its last 11 road games. One of those victories, though, came Wednesday night when the Diamondbacks embarrassed the Brewers, 8-1.
Actually the Brewers embarrassed themselves by playing their worst game of the season. I know that's saying a lot when talking Brewers baseball. Certainly it was their sloppiest game of the season with base running mistakes and five errors, the most they've made in a game since 2007.
I have to think the Brewers come out with more incentive than normally attached to a regular-season game especially in front of their loyal and patient fan base.
None of this would matter, though, if the pitching matchup wasn't in Milwaukee's favor, too.
Davies started the season in awful fashion giving up 13 runs in 13 1/3 innings during his first three starts. Since then, the right-hander has gone 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA holding opponents to a .217 batting average. He's 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts.
Ray is flashier and more highly-touted. Like the rest of the Arizona pitching staff, Ray has disappointed. He hasn't been at the absolute brutal level of Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin, but his 5-9 record and 4.53 ERA isn't winning any awards. Ray is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA in his last six starts.
The Diamondbacks may now own the worst bullpen in the National League after dealing closer Brad Ziegler. By contrast, the Brewers could have the most underrated late-inning relief in the majors with Will Smith, Tyler Thornburg and closer Jeremy Jeffress.
Arizona has lost 17 of the past 21 times it has gone against a righty starter. The Diamondbacks are likely to be missing left-handed slugging third baseman Jake Lamb, who leads the team in homers with 21 and is tied for first in RBIs with Paul Goldschmidt. He's been sidelined with a hand injury and isn't expected to return until Friday.
(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 5-1 on his last six baseball over/unders and has found his July Total of the Month on today's card.)
Play - Texas Rangers w/Hamels.
Edges - Rangers: Cole Hamels 10-3 team starts at night, and 11-4 team starts versus right handers this season. Royals: Yordano Ventura 1-3 team starts versus A.L. West this season. With Hamels 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his last seven team starts, and Ventura 0-5 with 6.33 ERA in his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Texas. Thank you and good luck as always.
> Look: Marc’s powerful database shares a 10* Power Play on Thursday night’s MLB card supported with 15-0 ATS winning angles inside the game, including one of which that has NEVER LOST the money. Best of all it’s yours - if you act now!
I'm recommending a play on the Brewers on Thursday afternoon. Jimmy Nelson and the Brewers had a meltdown last night as Arizona scored five runs in the top of the first and Milwaukee committed five errors. However, the Brewers have a great chance to bounce back from Wednesday's debacle with Zach Davies, who has allowed only three earned runs his last three starts in 20 innings. Davies is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA in June and July and the Diamondbacks have never faced him. Robbie Ray is 5-9 with a 4.53 ERA and the Diamondbacks have lost 13 of Ray's last 16 road starts dating to last season. Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10 home games against southpaw starters and we'll back them here. The Brewers get the call on Thursday afternoon. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Free Pick on Twins -
Minnesota is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Orioles. Baltimore will send out the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez, who is lucky to still be in the rotation. Jimenez is 5-9 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in 17 starts. He's been even worse than that of late, giving up 11 runs on 11 hits and 5 walks in just 5 2/3 innings over his last 2 starts.
The Twins will counter here with Kyle Gibson, who is coming off one of his best starts of the season. Gibson allowed just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innings at Boston. The Oriole have a solid offense, but are struggling at the plate right now. They have scored 3 runs or less in each of their last 3 games and have had 7 or less hits in 4 straight.
Jimenez is a mere 2-13 in his last 15 road starts after a loss and 0-11 in his last 11 road starts after 2 or more defeats. Take Minnesota!
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7/28 07:05 PM MLB (913) BOSTON RED SOX VS (914) LOS ANGELES ANGELS.
Reason: Your free play for Thursday, July 28, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the Boston Red Sox and the Angels in Anaheim. Boston has the top offense in baseball in runs, on base percentage and slugging. The Over is 23-9-1 against a losing record, as well as 20-6 over versus the AL West. They are not a great road team because of suspect pitching and "ace" David Price has been hit hard much of the season. He has a losing road record with a 4.77 ERA. Price comes off Saturday's 11-9 loss to the Twins, giving up five earned runs on 11 hits and two walks over 5.2 innings. Although he didn't give up any homers, Price pitched to a considerable amount of contact. He also fell behind early in the count frequently, notching first-pitch strikes on only 13 of 27 hitters and inducing a mere seven swinging strikes. Price was responsible for over half of the Twins' 19 hits on the night, and has now given up 11 hits in back-to-back starts. The Over is 7-3 in Price's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. LA is home with an offense that is picking up, on a 5-2-2 run over the total. Jered Weaver has allowed 12 runs in his last eight innings over two starts to raise his ERA to 5.32. Play the Red Sox/Angels Over the total.