Free Plays


NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+12½-110
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5

This line is clearly inflated right now because the Packers have something to play for while the Buccaneers do not. Well, I would argue that Green Bay could be looking ahead to next week’s game against Detroit and overlooking the Buccaneers. Either way, I believe the value is with the double-digit home underdogs in this one. The betting public always backs the Packers, and that’s what has driven this line up higher than it should be.

All you have to do is check out how the Packers have fared on the road this season and you’ll be in love with the Buccaneers as well. Indeed, Green Bay is just 3-4 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 4.9 points per game on the road, and outgained by 47.3 yards per game. It averages just 21.1 points and 341.6 yards per game, while giving up 26.0 points and 378.9 points per game away from home.

Even the three road wins for the Packers have been close as they won by 3 points at Miami and by 3 at Minnesota.  They did beat the Bears by 21 on the road, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Bears actually outgained the Packers by 138 yards.  All five of Aaron Rodgers' interceptions this season have come on the road, where he's been held to under 210 yards passing four times in seven starts.  He's been limited to just 12 touchdown passes on the road as well.

While the Buccaneers have a poor 2-12 record, I have no doubt that they are better than their record indicates. They have simply been a victim of several close losses this season. Indeed, nine of the Bucs’ 12 losses this season have come by 10 points or less, including eight by 8 points or fewer, and seven by 6 points per less. They have gone 1-9 in games decided by 10 points or fewer.

Tampa Bay clearly has not quit on Lovie Smith. It continues to fight as it has only been beaten by more than 10 points once in its last eight games overall. It has a 6-point overtime loss to Minnesota, a 5-point road loss at Cleveland, a 27-7 win over Washington, a 1-point home loss to Cincinnati and a 2-point road loss to Carolina during this stretch, just to name a few. The Buccaneers have actually outgained four of their last seven opponents despite going 1-6 over that span. They will continue to be competitive Sunday.

The Packers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. They have a tendency of playing down to their competition, and that has been evident by this trend. Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its seven road games this season. Tampa Bay is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in its last game. The Bucs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Packers, including 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

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NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Air Force
+1-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 22h

Air Force Falcons +1

The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl brings together Western Michigan and Air Force. The Falcons should feel very comfortable on the blue turf in Boise and a very nice season in the Mountain West including beating Boise State.

Western Michigan was solid in the MAC but I think they will find that the long layoff won’t help them solve that option attack and that Air Force will have plenty of fight as they strive for double digit victories.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals
+9½-125
  at  5DIMES
in 2d

My overall FB run is at 84-48-1, or 64%. I have won 5 of my L7 NFL football releases. This Sunday is the highest-rated pro football card of the season. As the biggest big game hunter in the business, I am proud to release my NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR and 10-3 BEST BET PLAY. If you follow me, you will get rich.

Play Arizona, game 130.

At 11-3, Arizona owns the best record in the NFC with Seattle just one game behind them at 10-4. The Seahawks beat the Cardinals, 19-3 back on November 23. Since then, Seattle's defense has continued to dominate. The problem is that the Seahawks offense has sputtered, big-time. The Cardinals have backup QB, Ryan Lindley calling the plays here. Not a rookie anymore, Linley has become a mature, intelligent team player. With the NFC West lead on the line, I expect head coach Bruce Arians to get his chemistry-rich team up once again here. The Cardinals are 7-0 straight up at home, going 6-1ATS. With running back, Kerwyn Williams finding his stride, this will allow Lindley time to find his talented corps of receivers, Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Brown. The Arizona offense can eat up enough clock to stay in this game. On defense, the Cardinals will bring the sixth best rushing "D" in the league here and slow down the Seahawks only offensive threat in running back, Marshawn Lynch. With quarterback, Russell Wilson still struggling and the offense really spluttering in the pass, I don't expect Seattle to light up the scoreboard here. Arizona is 6-0 ATS their  L6 games played at home, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in December, 12-3 ATS their L15 vs. the NFC, and 16-5 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take the points here. Play Arizona. Thank you.

NCAA-F  |  Dec 20, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Air Force
Air Force
-1½-104
  at  PINNACLE
in 22h

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #208 Take Air Force Falcons over Western Michigan Broncos (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Saturday, 5:45 pm ESPN) The Falcons continue to be undervalued by the bookmakers as this is far and away the best of the academy teams in 2014. The Falcons are 9-3 on the season and that includes wining five of their last six games including a victory over Colorado State. The MAC was not as strong of a football conference this season compared to the Moutain West and I just do not believe Western Michigan is excited to be playing this game in Boise, ID. The Falcons get their quarterback back for this game and he is the straw that stirs the drink. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs and Air Force is not just a run on all downs team anymore. Air Force has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card featuring a monster selection on Saturday from the New Orleans Bowl and as well as our NCAA Game of the Year. Get all of the action now, right here and let 43 years of handicapping experience work for you. 

NCAA-F  |  Dec 24, 2014
Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Total
66 ov-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 4d

30 DIME BAHAMAS BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

TODAY'S WINNER: 66 OVERS

Central Michigan is averaging 38 points on the grass, and has allowed 30 points when playing on the road. Today they will face Western Kentucky who is averaging 38 points on the road, and surrendering 30 points on defense. Western Kentucky averaged 54 points in their last 3 games, and that caused a signal in the algorithms. Western Kentucky is 9-3 ATS on the over with a average score of 44 points. According to the algorithms, I have the total at 77 and 74. Lay the money on the 66 over for today's winner. Thank You

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