Courtesy of Scott Rickenbach
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET
This total has moved from an opener of 5 to a 5.5 and, of course, this is opening up some line value on the under in this match-up. The Capitals are fired up after losing in OT to the Maple Leafs Saturday and the under is 4-1 in recent seasons (and 14-7 long-term) when the Capitals are in a playoff series that is tied up.
Overall, in first round playoff games, the under is 10-4 in Caps games in recent seasons and 46-25 long-term. Saturday’s game went over the total but that was the first over that Washington has had in 7 games this month. Also, it was just the 2nd over in the Maple Leafs last 6 games.
Toronto had been held to 2 goals or less in 4 of their last 5 games prior to Saturday’s marathon OT win. After that long game in game two, I look for game three to play out with both teams looking to be willing to play more of a tight low-scoring game and conserve energy in this one for the late game stages as a result of Saturday’s exhausting efforts. Even though there have been 12 goals in this series, the long OT game means the teams have played more than 2 and a half games already.
Also, over the last 2 and a half periods, there have been only 2 goals. Washington’s equalizer in the 3rd period and then the Maple Leafs game winner more than halfway through the 2nd OT. This series is surprisingly settling into a tight, fierce battle and the result should be a lower scoring match-up in game three.
Free Pick on UNDER 5.5 the total in Toronto early Monday evening.
Best of luck, Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach